Straight Shooting
Many experts and economists often take issue with the forecasts and comments David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors makes. Rex Nutting with MarketWatch recently pointed out what he perceived to be the two universal truths as defined by Lereah. Those being that: 1) It’s always a good time to buy or sell a home; and 2) We’ve seen the worst of the housing market correction.
Nutting takes issue with Lereah and provides a point by point analysis of what Lereah was saying the housing market was doing in 2006 and 2007, and what the market was acutally doing.
For example:
January 2006
Lereah’s forecast: “The market is in the process of normalization.”
Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 12.6% to 6.94 million annualized.
Lereah’s post-mortem: “The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead.”
January 2007
Lereah’s forecast: “The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward.”
Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 2.3% to 6.24 million.
Lereah’s post-mortem: “It appears we have established a bottom.”
To read “Realtors’ economist stayed sunny all year” in its entirety, click here.